Thursday, March 22, 2018

Season to Date Top-15 Green Zone Players on Tour 3.18.18

Here's the top-15 Green Zone (75-125 yards) performers on Tour. Green Zone has the lowest correlation to success on Tour, mainly due to a lack of frequency of shots per round as well as the lower deviation in performance.  For example, by the end of the season the typical worst performer from the Green Zone is still hitting their shots to roughly 28 feet to the hole.  That is still good enough to find a green and likely 2-putt (88% odds).  And the best performer from the Green Zone will likely end up around 16-feet to the cup which has 78% chance of 2-putting.

Green Zone success is important for shorter hitters who cannot reach par-5's in two as well as long hitters who struggle with precision off the tee (punching out to this distance to hope and save par).


Season-to-Date Top-15 Yellow Zone Tour Players 3.18.18

Here are the top-15 Yellow Zone (125-175 yards) performers.  Yellow Zone performance often correlates to Birdie % as this is the range where golfers are more likely get inside 17-feet which provides a statistically significant higher make percentage.

Essentially, good Yellow Zone performers start to gain an advantage as they will have more makeable birdie putts than lesser Yellow Zone performers.

Yellow Zone performance also ties into driving accuracy.  Players that can find the fairway on Yellow Zone shots can have a distinct advantage over those that find the rough.


Season-to-Date Top-15 Red Zone Players 3.18.18

Here are the top-15 players from the Red Zone (175-225 yards) as of 3.18.17.  This could play a great influence at The Masters given how many shots, particularly critical ones, come from the Red Zone at Augusta National.  This is also likely to show up later on in the season for players that are not gaining a lot of FedEx Cup points.  History has shown that these players start to eventually pick up points...particularly in the summer months.

The easiest course to play from the Red Zone thus far has been Palm Springs (37.8 ft prox 2 cup average).  The most difficult thus far has been at Waialae (45.5 ft prox 2 cup average).


Season-to-Date Top-15 in Tee Shot Aggressiveness 3.18.18

Here is the top-15 in Tee Shot Aggressiveness.  Tee Shot Aggressiveness is an algorithm used to determine how often the player is laying up off the tee versus hitting driver.

The least 'aggressive' player on Tour has been Henrik Stenson.  The 2nd least aggressive player on Tour has been...

Tiger Woods.


Season-to-Date Top-15 Players in Adjusted Distance to Edge of Fairway 3.18.18

Below is the top-15 players in Adjusted Average Distance to the Edge of the Fairway.  This measurement is based on when a player MISSES the fairway and how close to the edge of the fairway they are.  This is an important metric due to the likelihood that the further the player is from the fairway the more difficult the lie in the rough tends to be.  Some courses like Houston this is not much of a factor.  Other courses such as Harbour Town this is not much of a factor since the course is so tight due to the trees and hazards that the Missed Fairway - Other % becomes a bigger factor in driving effectiveness.

This also can change depending on the size of the course's fairways.  Narrower fairways tend to yield larger Distance to the Edge of the Fairway than wider fairways.

For longer golfers, Distance to the Edge of the Fairway is more important since they are likely to miss more fairways due to smaller margins for error.  For shorter hitters, it's more important to actually find the fairway a higher percentage of the time.  They simply cannot afford to miss too many fairways given their lack of distance off the tee.


Season-to-Date Top-15 Adjusted Hit Fairway % Players 3.18.18

Here's the top-15 in Adjusted Hit Fairway Percentage.  Torrey Pines had the lowest hit fairway percentage for a field (49.99%) and Sea Island has had the highest hit fairway percentage for a field thus far (71.31%)

Chez Reavie is having a tremendous year at finding the fairway.  He ranked 162nd in Adjusted Driving Distance and that is why he ranks 10th in Driving Effectiveness:


Top-15 Players in Driving Effectiveness Season-To-Date 3.18.18

Here are the top-15 players in Driving Effectiveness, Season-to-Date thru 3/18: