Thursday, March 27, 2014

Elk Working on his 2014 Equipment

Here's a video from Steve Elkington going over him working on equipment.


Wednesday, March 26, 2014

A Statistical Look at Matt Every's Decision at Bay Hill

This past Sunday we had this infamous exchange heard on NBC between Matt Every and his caddie about what decision to make (NSFW).

Every was stuck in a precarious position on the 16th hole. He had a tree partially blocking his shot and there is water in front of the green. Here’s a diagram of the 16th hole at Bay Hill:

Every is one of the most aggressive players on Tour. Last year he ranked 13th in my Tee Shot Aggressiveness ranking which measures the projected amount of times the golfer lays up off the tee on par-4’s and par-5’s. He was also 3rd in Par-5 aggressiveness which measures the percentage of times the golfer Goes for the Green in 2 shots compared to their distance off the tee.

Generally, the numbers work in the player’s favor to be aggressive off the tee (from a driver vs. lay-up perspective ONLY) and on the par-5’s. And I could see Every’s thinking about going for it here as the 16th hole is a birdie hole that played to only a 4.425 scoring average this past week. So the idea of not getting the ball on the green and not making par could be a 2-stroke swing.

However, the bigger issue for Every is that since he was hitting his 3rd shot here, a shot in the water would provide larger damage to his chances of winning. That’s the thing about being aggressive in going for the green on par-5’s (and even on the tee on some short par-4’s); if you end up in the water you can still drop and save the par. But in Every’s situation if he goes in the water par is completely out of play and now he is looking more at making a double bogey.

Every’s caddie states that if they just lay-up and put it in the fairway they will ‘get up-and-down 75% of the time.’ Well, let’s take a look at the numbers on that.

Every decided to punch out and hit his shot to 89 yards in the fairway.

Here’s a look at Every’s numbers for the year:

On shots from 75-100 yards from the fairway: 17’0” Avg. Proximity to the Cup.

Total Putting from 15-20 feet: 32.39%

However, we have to remember that was for a par putt. And Tour players typically make a higher percentage of par putts than birdie putts.

So far this year, Every is 5 for 12 (41.7%) from 15-20 feet on par & bogey putts.

Therefore, the reality is that his odds of getting up and down were at 41.7% instead of 75% given the shot he had hit. Unfortunately it was all taken out of play when he hit that 89 yard shot from the fairway to 25 feet which greatly reduced his odds.

In the end, Every I feel that the data supports Every’s decision to lay-up, regardless of Every going on to victory. Making double bogey on a hole where the majority of golfers made birdie or eagle would have greatly hurt his odds of winning. And since he had made 42% of his par/bogey putts from 15-20 feet for the year, he had more than a puncher’s chance of getting up-and-down by putting the ball in the fairway from 75-100 yards.

This is a typical risk vs. reward strategy in golf. Every and his caddie had the risk and reward percentages skewed and were inaccurate when it comes to the actual probabilities. However, they understood what double bogey meant on a hole where golfers were likely to score low.


Tuesday, March 25, 2014

3Jack Golf's 2014 PGA Tour Rundown - Week 13

Matt Every wins at Bay Hill:

Here is how my picks for Bay Hill finished:

Here are my picks for Bay Hill

Justin Rose: 14/1 (MC)
Bubba Watson: 14/1 (WD)
Zach Johnson: 22/1 (t-43rd)
Keegan Bradley: 28/1 (2nd)
Harris English: 33/1 (t-14th)
Ian Poulter: 66/1 (t-20th)
Russell Knox: 80/1 (t-43rd)
Billy Horschel: 100/1 (t-43rd)
Brendan Steele: 100/1 (t-20th)

Value Pick: John Merrick 200/1 t-43rd

Here are my picks for the Valero Texas Open:

Ryan Moore: 16/1
Phil Mickelson: 16/1
Zach Johnson: 16/1
Jim Furyk: 25/1
Charley Hoffman: 25/1
Kevin Chappell: 50/1
K.J. Choi: 50/1
Russell Knox: 66/1
Justin Hicks 200/1

Value Pick: Lee Williams 300/1

Here are the updated rankings. I have changed the names of the Zones to the following:

Green Zone (75-125 yards)
Yellow Zone (125-175 yards)
Red Zone (175-225 yards)


1. Bubba Watson
2. Kevin Streelman
3. Hunter Mahan
4. Kevin Stadler
5. Hideki Matsuyama
6. Justin Hicks
7. Ryan Moore
8. Billy Horschel
9. Heath Slocum
10. David Toms

168. Johnson Wagner
169. Jamie Lovemark
170. Seung-Yul Noh
171. Retief Goosen
172. Andres Romero
173. Aaron Baddeley
174. Tyrone Van Aswegen
175. Chad Collins
176. Bud Cauley
177. Mike Weir


1. Ryo Ishikawa
2. Marc Leishman
3. Jim Furyk
4. Tim Clark
5. Brian Stuard
6. Chesson Hadley
7. Michael Putnam
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. John Rollins
10. Vijay Singh

168. Morgan Hoffmann
169. Brendon de Jonge
170. Richard Lee
171. Jhonattan Vegas
172. Derek Ernst
173. Ernie Els
174. Tommy Gainey
175. Aaron Baddeley
176. Graeme McDowell
177. Wes Roach


1. Victor Dubuisson
2. Peter Malnati
3. K.J. Choi
4. Marc Leishman
5. Dustin Johnson
6. Lee Williams
7. Graeme McDowell
8. Rickie Fowler
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Jim Furyk

168. Johnson Wagner
169. Edward Loar
170. Patrick Reed
171. Chad Campbell
172. Jonathan Byrd
173. Jhonattan Vegas
174. Kevin Tway
175. Troy Matteson
176. D.A. Points
177. Ben Curtis

RED ZONE (175-225 YARDS)

1. Chad Campbell
2. Kyle Stanley
3. Brooks Koepka
4. Robert Streb
5. Heath Slocum
6. Jordan Spieth
7. Matt Every
8. Brendan Steele
9. Kevin Streelman
10. Brad Fritsch

168. John Rollins
169. James Driscoll
170. Max Homa
171. John Huh
172. Justin Leonard
173. Greg Chalmers
174. Ben Curtis
175. Richard Lee
176. Peter Malnati
177. Bud Cauley


1. Bud Cauley
2. Zach Johnson
3. Jason Dufner
4. Justin Rose
5. Ian Poulter
6. Tim Clark
7. Robert Streb
8. Lee Westwood
9. George McNeill
10. Bryce Molder

168. Troy Merritt
169. Greg Chalmers
170. Jamie Lovemark
171. Scott Gardiner
172. Tommy Gainey
173. John Peterson
174. Graeme McDowell
175. Andrew Svoboda
176. Hudson Swafford
177. J.J. Henry


Friday, March 21, 2014

Force Plate Data and Shaft Lean at Impact

Here's a video discussing one of the reasons why a golfer's Center of Pressure trace may lead to a lack of forward shaft lean at impact:


Thursday, March 20, 2014

Fujikura ENSO Video

Here's a video discussing the Fujikura ENSO machine.


Tuesday, March 18, 2014

3Jack Golf's 2014 PGA Tour Rundown - Week 12

John Senden wins at Tampa:

Jason Dufner: 16/1 (t-14th)
Justin Rose: 18/1 (t-8th)
Luke Donald: 20/1 (t-4th)
Jim Furyk: 25/1 (t-20th)
Kevin Streelman: 50/1 (t-38th)
Russell Knox: 66/1 (t-25th)
Charley Hoffman: 70/1 (t-25th)
Brian Harman: 100/1 (t-25th)
Stewart Cink: 125/1 (MC)

Value Pick: Justin Hicks 150/1 (t-32nd)

Here are my picks for Bay Hill

Justin Rose: 14/1
Bubba Watson: 14/1
Zach Johnson: 22/1
Keegan Bradley: 28/1
Harris English: 33/1
Ian Poulter: 66/1
Russell Knox: 80/1
Billy Horschel: 100/1
Brendan Steele: 100/1

Value Pick: John Merrick 200/1


1. Bubba Watson
2. Hunter Mahan
3. Kevin Streelman
4. Ryan Moore
5. Kevin Stadler
6. Justin Hicks
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Billy Horschel
9. Heath Slocum
10. Derek Ernst

170. Andrew Loupe
171. Jamie Lovemark
172. Seung-Yul Noh
173. Retief Goosen
174. Andres Romero
175. Tyrone Van Aswegen
176. Chad Collins
177. Aaron Baddeley
178. Bud Cauley
179. Mike Weir


1. Ryo Ishikawa
2. Alex Aragon
3. Sergio Garcia
4. Marc Leishman
5. Michael Putnam
6. Jim Furyk
7. Jason Bohn
8. Chesson Hadley
9. Tim Clark
10. Hideki Matsuyama

170. Chad Campbell
171. Brendon de Jonge
172. Richard Lee
173. Jhonattan Vegas
174. Ernie Els
175. Derek Ernst
176. Tommy Gainey
177. Aaron Baddeley
178. Wes Roach
179. Graeme McDowell


1. Graeme McDowell
2. Rickie Fowler
3. K.J. Choi
4. Victor Dubuisson
5. Peter Malnati
6. Dustin Johnson
7. Marc Leishman
8. Lee Williams
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Jim Furyk

170. Davis Love III
171. Billy Horschel
172. Gary Woodland
173. Andrew Loupe
174. Jonathan Byrd
175. Kevin Tway
176. Troy Matteson
177. D.A. Points
178. Ben Curtis
179. Jhonattan Vegas


1. Chad Campbell
2. Sergio Garcia
3. Kyle Stanley
4. Matt Every
5. Robert Streb
6. Heath Slocum
7. Brendan Steele
8. Jordan Spieth
9. Russell Knox
10. Kevin Streelman

170. Aaron Baddeley
171. John Huh
172. Justin Leonard
173. Woody Austin
174. Ben Curtis
175. Greg Chalmers
176. Tim Wilkinson
177. Richard Lee
178. Peter Malnati
179. Bud Cauley


1. Bud Cauley
2. Andrew Loupe
3. Jason Dufner
4. Lee Westwood
5. Zach Johnson
6. Tim Clark
7. Robert Streb
8. Ian Poulter
9. Brian Stuard
10. George McNeill

170. Alex Aragon
171. Tommy Gainey
172. Greg Chalmers
173. John Peterson
174. Bronson La'Cassie
175. Danny Lee
176. Hudson Swafford
177. Andrew Svoboda
178. Graeme McDowell
179. J.J. Henry


Tuesday, March 11, 2014

AimPoint Express Read Review

A few months ago, AimPoint creator Mark Sweeney discovered a new method to use AimPoint and dubbed it ‘AimPoint Express.’ Here’s a short video from an AimPoint instructor demonstrating the AimPoint Express method.

I toyed around with AimPoint Express when it was first revealed. Even though I did not fully understand it, I was having some good success using the method. This past weekend I finally went to AimPoint instructor, David Graham, at the Marriott Golf Academy in Orlando (the old Faldo Institute, right down the road from Sea World and across the street from Grande Pines). I was fully coached in AimPoint Express and spotted some of the parts where I was executing the method incorrectly and had a lot of questions answered.

What is AimPoint Express?

Without giving too much away, it’s a quicker version of using AimPoint that does not require the use of the AimPoint charts. The method came about when Mark started working with junior golfers that were trying to use the AimPoint methodology without using the charts.

Are the charts still valid?

Yes, very much so. The AimPoint Express is just a different option. The general consensus is that for the most accurate reading, the chart should be used. But, the AimPoint Express is extremely accurate in itself. It just gives the golfer an option to use AimPoint if they find the charts a bit too cumbersome to use. Personally, I plan on using Express on every read possible except for double breaks because I’m generally very good and quick at reading double breaks using the chart.

I have gone to an AimPoint clinic and I think I have the idea of how the AimPoint Express works, can I just use it?

I would recommend that you need to either go to an Express clinic or get another lesson on Express. The very foundation of reading the slope is more or less the exact opposite than what you find in the mid-read AimPoint method. There are also nuances to AimPoint Express depending on the green’s stimp, types of slopes and location to the hole that alter how the Express method is performed.

I kinda get the idea about the AimPoint Express, but given people’s body’s and arm lengths are different, how can this really be accurate?

This is another important reason why getting an Express lesson or going to an Express clinic is needed. There’s a simple practice methodology that takes all of less than a minute to figure out how to accurately perform the Express method regardless of person’s size.

Can I still use the charts with the Express method?
Sure. In fact, Russell Knox and his caddie Bradley Whittle use a combination of the AimPoint Express and Mid-Read methods at the Honda Classic where Knox, typically a below average Tour putter, finished with 0.852 strokes gained – putting for the tournament. .

Is it really that easy?

Yes, it is. In fact, it is almost unbelievable how easy it is. The difficult part for me was getting used to the different methodology of feeling the slope. If anything, it’s just because it was different from the way we determine the slope on mid-reads and I had to get used to it. But, I think the biggest advantage that the Express method has over the mid-read is the golfer can more easily determine where exactly they have to aim. For example, using the charts you may get a reading of 7 inches outside the cup. The difficult part is figuring out where 7-inches outside the cup is from your perspective. With the mid-read, it eliminates that estimation and you can spot a precise spot to where you want to aim at.

In essence, I think it is a real game-changer.

I would like to thank AimPoint, David Graham at Marriott Golf Academy ( and Justin Blazer for their help with understanding AimPoint Express. Justin Blazer is also a certified AimPoint Instructor who teaches the Express method. He is now teaching at Duran Golf Club in Melbourne, Florida (


Thursday, March 6, 2014

Reading a TPI Wrist Graph with Kelvin Miyahira

Here's a video from Kelvin Miyahira discussing Titleist Performance Institute wrist graphs


Tuesday, March 4, 2014

3Jack Golf's 2014 PGA Tour Rundown - Week 10

Russell Henley wins the Honda Classic:

Here are how my Honda picks finished:

Adam Scott: 16/1 (t-12th)
Charl Schwartzel: 20/1 (MC)
Graeme McDowell: 22/1 (t-46th)
Justin Rose: 25/1 (DNP)
Keegan Bradley: 28/1 (t-12th)
Rickie Fowler: 28/1 (t-24th)
Ryan Palmer: 75/1 (p-2nd)
Robert Garrigus: 100/1 (MC)
Brendan Steele: 125/1 (t-33rd)

Value Pick: Ben Crane (150/1) 69th

Here are my picks for Doral:

Sergio Garcia: 18/1
Bubba Watson: 22/1
Jordan Spieth: 22/1
Keegan Bradley: 28/1
Zach Johnson: 33/1
Steve Stricker: 40/1
Jason Dufner: 50/1
Lee Westwood: 50/1
Jim Furyk: 50/1

Value Pick: Nick Watney (66/1)


1. Bubba Watson
2. Kevin Streelman
3. Hunter Mahan
4. Ryan Moore
5. Kevin Stadler
6. Justin Hicks
7. Hideki Matsuyama
8. Derek Ernst
9. John Merrick
10. Graham DeLaet

159. Chad Collins
160. Gonzalo Fdez-Castano
161. Retief Goosen
162. Aaron Baddeley
163. Jamie Lovemark
164. Seung-Yul Noh
165. Andres Romero
166. Tyrone Van Aswegen
167. Bud Cauley
168. Mike Weir


1. Ryo Ishikawa
2. Alex Aragon
3. Chesson Hadley
4. Marc Leishman
5. Brian Stuard
6. Jason Bohn
7. Michael Putnam
8. Hideki Matsuyama
9. Tim Clark
10. K.J. Choi

159. Luke Guthrie
160. Chad Campbell
161. James Hahn
162. Sean O'Hair
163. Jhonattan Vegas
164. Brendon de Jonge
165. Tommy Gainey
166. Derek Ernst
167. Aaron Baddeley
168. Wes Roach


1. Victor Dubuisson
2. Rickie Fowler
3. Ryan Moore
4. K.J. Choi
5. Dustin Johnson
6. Marc Leishman
7. Peter Malnati
8. Jordan Spieth
9. Hideki Matsuyama
10. Charley Hoffman

159. Sean O'Hair
160. Lee Westwood
161. Johnson Wagner
162. Jonathan Byrd
163. Kevin Tway
164. D.A. Points
165. Troy Matteson
166. Ben Curtis
167. Jhonattan Vegas
168. Gary Woodland


1. Bubba Watson
2. Chad Campbell
3. Jordan Spieth
4. Matt Every
5. Robert Streb
6. Kyle Stanley
7. Kevin Streelman
8. Heath Slocum
9. Brendan Steele
10. Jason Dufner

159. J.B. Holmes
160. Greg Chalmers
161. John Huh
162. Tim Wilkinson
163. Woody Austin
164. Ben Curtis
165. Peter Malnati
166. Richard Lee
167. Bud Cauley
168. Kiradech Aphibarnrat


1. Tim Clark
2. Lee Westwood
3. Bud Cauley
4. Zach Johnson
5. Jason Dufner
6. Robert Streb
7. George McNeill
8. Jonathan Byrd
9. Brian Stuard
10. Roberto Castro

159. Danny Lee
160. Alex Aragon
161. Ben Martin
162. Ted Potter, Jr.
163. Robert Allenby
164. Tommy Gainey
165. Hudson Swafford
166. Greg Chalmers
167. Andrew Svoboda
168. J.J. Henry